Chad Smith, NAFB News Service
Wheat: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat supplies are decreased this month on lower production, down 21 million bushels to just over 1.7 billion bushels. The August NASS production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year, primarily due to continued severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains. Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production. Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased significantly, primarily on an 8.6-million-ton production increase in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Russian production is a record 77.5 million tons, surpassing last year’s record by 5.0 million.
Coarse Grains: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and a decline in ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 102 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is 1.2 bushels lower than last month’s trend-based projection.
Sorghum production is forecast 13 million bushels higher with the forecast yield 2.6 bushels per acre above last month’s projection.
Exports are forecast down 25 million bushels, reflecting the increased competitiveness of supplies in Argentina and Brazil and the low level of new-crop outstanding sales. This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for virtually unchanged production, lower trade, and greater stocks relative to last month.
Soybeans: U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 130.9 million tons, up 3.9 million from last month mainly due to higher soybean production. Soybean production is forecast at 4,381 million bushels, up 121 million on higher yields. Harvested area is forecast at 88.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 49.4 bushels per acre is 1.4 bushels above last month but 2.7 below last year’s record.
Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 576.7 million tons, up 2.8 million, mainly on a 2.3-million-ton increase for soybean production. Global soybean exports for 2017/18 are up 1.5 million tons as higher U.S. exports are partly offset by lower Argentina shipments.
Rice: Total U.S. rice supplies are lowered 5.0 million hundred weight from last month due to a smaller crop and a slight reduction in beginning stocks. The 2017/18 U.S. rice production forecast is lowered 4.8 million hundred weight to 186.5 million based on the first survey-based yield forecast of the 2017/18 season.
Sugar: U.S. beet sugar production for the 2017/18 August-July crop year is increased by 89,500 short tons, raw value to 5.131 million based on area and sugarbeet yield forecasts made by NASS in Crop Production report. Early-season production occurring in August and September is projected to constitute 10.7 percent of the total.
Cotton: The first survey of U.S. 2017 crop production indicates a crop of 20.5 million bales, 1.5 million above last month and the largest production in 11 years. The larger crop is partially offset by lower beginning stocks which are reduced 400,000 bales to 2.8 million due to an increase in final 2016/17 exports.
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: The forecast for total meat production in 2017 is raised from last month, as increases in commercial beef and broiler production more than offset declines in pork and turkey production. The increase in beef production reflects relatively large cattle placements in the second quarter which will likely impact fourth quarter cattle slaughter. Second quarter broiler production is raised slightly based on June production data, but no change is made to the outlying quarters. Pork production is reduced on lower expected slaughter in the third quarter. Forecast turkey production is reduced on a slower-than-expected recovery in demand and relatively poor returns to producers. Egg production is increased modestly on recent hatchery data.
The milk production forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are reduced from the previous month as slow growth in milk per cow more than offsets increases in dairy cow numbers.